A senior research director at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs has issued a stark warning that the treatment of Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara during the recently concluded All Progressives Congress primary elections could create significant political risks for President Bola Tinubu. Femi Otubanjo, speaking on a national television programme Thursday morning, described the situation as one of the most peculiar developments in Nigerian political history.
At the heart of Otubanjo’s concerns is the outsized influence wielded by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, over political affairs in Rivers State despite not being a registered member of the APC. The research director questioned how someone outside the ruling party could effectively dictate the terms of its internal primary process, describing the arrangement as both unusual and potentially damaging. Otubanjo characterized the handling of Fubara’s situation as nothing short of remarkable, suggesting it belonged among the unexpected wonders of the country’s political landscape.
The expert’s analysis centres on what he sees as a divergence between presidential interests and ministerial ambitions. Otubanjo argued forcefully that Wike appears to be pursuing a personal political agenda in Rivers State rather than advancing the strategic objectives of President Tinubu. He expressed hope that the president’s political strategists were paying close attention to these developments, warning that the current trajectory could have negative consequences for Tinubu’s broader political standing.
According to Otubanjo, if the FCT minister genuinely sought to advance the president’s agenda in the Niger Delta region, the logical course of action would involve supporting and retaining Fubara as governor. Instead, what has emerged from the primary process suggests a different set of priorities altogether. The research director’s comments add to growing speculation about internal tensions within the ruling party and questions about the chain of command in matters affecting key states.
Rivers State has been at the centre of political turbulence since tensions emerged between Fubara and his predecessor turned political rival. The state’s political landscape has become a focal point for national observers trying to understand the balance of power within the APC and the extent of influence wielded by various power brokers. What happens in Rivers often reverberates across the oil rich Niger Delta region and beyond, making the state a bellwether for larger political trends.
Looking ahead, the situation in Rivers State will likely serve as a test case for how the APC manages internal conflicts and competing centres of influence as the 2027 general elections draw c. Whether President Tinubu intervenes to reshape the political dynamics or allows current arrangements to continue could have far reaching implications for party cohesion and electoral prospects. Political analysts will be watching closely to see if Otubanjo’s warnings prompt any recalibration of strategy or if the status quo prevails despite the potential risks he has outlined.
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