Europe’s energy crisis is deepening as natural gas prices spike to their highest levels since early 2023, raising urgent questions about whether the continent can adequately stock up before winter arrives in just three months. Dutch front-month gas futures surged to 67 euros per megawatt hour on Monday morning, but that might be just the beginning.
Goldman Sachs commodities expert Samantha Dart warns the situation could get dramatically worse. Prices may need to exceed 100 euros per megawatt hour by December 2026 if LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz don’t improve soon. That’s more than double her original base case forecast of 50 euros.
The problem? Reduced Qatari LNG shipments have forced Europe into a bidding war with Asia for available cargoes. Current storage levels stand at just 61.68%, well below the 15-year seasonal average of 72.5%. European gas storage injections continue to miss expectations throughout August, widening the gap further.
What makes this particularly alarming is the uncertainty. Dart notes that prices have only reached these extreme levels once before, during the 2022 European energy crisis, making the demand response at such heights difficult to predict. The coming months will be a price discovery process few want to experience.
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